Seong-Hyon Lee
Harvard Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies

Received December 30, 2021; Revised version received January 30, 2022; Accepted February 10, 2022

Abstract

This article dwells on the uncertainty that lies in the future of South Korea–China relations. The deep economic complementarity that previously characterized the close South Korea-China relations is no longer there. Accusations of cultural and historical appropriation have significantly undermined confidence between civil societies. The anti-China sentiment among South Koreans has been unprecedentedly high since the THAAD dispute. Especially among young South Koreans, a sense of incompatibility with China’s political system is widening. In the security realm, South Korea’s high hopes for China to render a constructive role in containing North Korea’s nuclear and missile belligerence are becoming less tenable, as China regards the United States, not North Korea, as a bigger existential threat. The pull and push of the intensifying U.S.–China rivalry is set to severely constrain South Korea’s choices, including semiconductor supply chains, while posing fresh challenges such as the tension building in the Taiwan Strait. South Korea’s political leadership has been traditionally primed for domestic turf fights and is not well equipped to deal with the outside geopolitical shift, precipitated by the “rise of China.” The year 2022 marks the 30th diplomatic anniversary of Seoul-Beijing relations. At age 30, the Seoul and Beijing’s earlier infatuation is over. Their future is uncertain.

Key Words : South Korea–China relations, China–Korea relations, THAAD, anti-China sentiment, China and the Korean Peninsula, China–North Korea relations